Background

This project was launched because of two main concerns. Given the obvious importance of Central European states to EU and NATO efforts in support of Ukraine’s resistance to the Russian invasion, we wondered about various signs (political debates, opinion polls, election results) that this support is decreasing and desire for a swift, negotiated end to the war is increasing. This led directly to our second concern, namely dissatisfaction at some existing opinion surveys that avoid in-depth exploration of why support is slipping and sidestep difficult questions of responsibility or mistakes on the part of the EU, NATO, or the Ukrainian government. Sometimes the partisanship is brazen in its contempt of citizens' beliefs: Slovak opinions about Ukraine are simply discounted as a product of "Russian disinformation" for example, while even Ukrainians' falling trust in President Zelensky is written off to "the burdens of office."

While a broad range of organizations and institutions sponsor such surveys, it became quickly evident that many have a pro-Ukrainian mission or pro-EU or NATO partisan slant that interferes with objective, clear-eyed opinion research. Put simply, EU-sponsored polls are unlikely to ask direct questions about EU mistakes or responsibility for policy errors. And think tanks dedicated to Ukrainian victory are highly unlikely to explore issues of Ukrainian dysfunction or malfeasance, nor to look closely at the growth of "Ukraine fatigue" in neighboring states.

While there are exceptions, and varying degrees of distortion, we grew concerned that an accurate picture of how and why Central European support for Ukraine is weakening is not well facilitated by polls that are concerned to spin that weakening support or sidestep it altogether. We strongly support Ukraine, but do not believe that designing research to reach a particular conclusion or avoid painful answers best serves Ukraine's, nor the West's, interests. In fact, one of our findings from asking more difficult and self-critical questions is that a lack of candor and accountability on the part of the EU-NATO establishment itself has contributed to erosion of Central European support.